Playing the “WHAT IF” Game…

Syp asks some interesting WHAT IF questions, so I decided to write down my own answers over here. You can play along too! (Update #1 - Looks like Dave of Warhammer Gamers is playing!)

…What if WAR hadn’t been delayed, but would’ve been released in early June to go head-to-head against Age of Conan?

Due to their admitted lack of polish, I think WAR would have and will ultimately fail with a poor launch. From a mechanical perspective, both games have similarities, so I think a concurrent launch may have actually weakened both titles. AoC will likely benefit from releasing before WAR because it gives players enough time to immerse themselves. Players may find that AoC does indeed satisfy their PvP cravings and may not find it necessary to try out WAR. Also, Funcom will see a boost in sales due to a bunch of WAR fans who just can’t wait until WAR is released to satiate their MMORPG appetites. I personally know several devout WAR fans who didn’t even care about AoC before the delay announcement, but are now planning on picking up a copy while shouting “By Crom!” Even if these players don’t stick around long, the box sales and few months of subscriptions will boost early income.

…What if WAR is delayed into 2009, despite reassurances from Mythic that it doesn’t look like that would ever happen?

I still think launching at the same time or after WotLK is a bad idea for reasons explained in previous posts. My general feeling is that while most fans are understanding of the multiple delays WAR’s release has seen, you can’t keep stringing people along and expect them to continue biting at the carrot you’re dangling. Luckily, I don’t think we’ll see another delay because they should have more than enough time to iron remaining issues and polish up the content to a brilliant sheen.

…What if Order becomes the “underdog” faction instead of Destruction, a la Horde in World of Warcraft?

They’ve gone ahead and made Destruction so cool that this is one of my greatest fears for when they release. Jeff Hickman has said in a number of public interviews that they have mechanisms to control populations on the server, so I really hope they stick to their guns. If I recall correctly, he stated that they will not allow new characters of Faction A to be made on a server that has a certain ratio of greater population to Faction B. He also said that they will include incentives for people to make characters on servers with a lower faction population, a la, DAOC.

…What if Age of Conan gets fair-to-middling reviews, and antsy gamers twiddle their thumbs all summer waiting for the next big thing?

I think if AoC gets even fair-to-middling reviews, many antsy gamers won’t be able to hold themselves back from purchasing it because, by nature, most gamers are ADHD-prone. If people do twiddle their thumbs all summer waiting for WAR, it will need to be a pretty darn good game or people will be scathing in their hatred because they waited so long to play it. Not that EA Mythic will deserve it all, but most people are ruled by emotion and that’s just the way it will go.

Heck, I’d be a bit annoyed for buying into all their hype only to find a game that doesn’t meet the high standards Paul Barnett and Co. said it would.

…What if Blizzard is holding back a huge surprise — or two! — from their list of Wrath of the Lich King features?

While it’s nice to speculate on things like this, there’s really not much EA Mythic can do about it when releasing a competitive product. Blizzard will do what they do best, and for most WAR fans, it just isn’t good enough anymore. I can’t see them adding any new features that would earn my subscription back and I’m sure that holds true for many people. Even if they decided to reinvent their endgame to incorporate meaningful PvP, it’s just too little too late imho, and I’d rather have a fresh start.

…What if WAR’s 24 classes contain massive imbalances on launch day?

Big trouble for obvious reasons. Many people will reminisce back to the days of DAOC when this was a common occurrence and shout out loudly that EA Mythic hasn’t changed. Will this happen though? I don’t think so…

…What if Joystiq creates a WAR Insider?

Bummer for all the “little guys” who started up fansites so early in WAR’s development. Overall though, I think the WAR fan community has formed some pretty strong relationships and the general impression I get is that we’re all supportive of one another. There’s something to be said about getting all your news from a single source (one-stop shopping), but it’s also nice to be able to hear other peoples’ take on things. If it happens, I will continue to go on and it might actually make my job a bit easier.

…What if Mythic includes those cool Paul Barnett sunglasses in the CE?

Then I’ll be Stylin’ and Profilin’!

…What if I’d never stop wearing them?

If your eyes aren’t actively detecting light, it could be conceivable that your eye structure evolves towards that of a deep sea fish or cave newt… rendering you blind! Make sure you read the warning label that states, “Attention: Extended use can decrease the production of cellular eye protein! Wearer beware!”

…What if WAR launches, it’s a good game, but it never gets more than 200,000 long-term subscribers?

Oooh, I love playing with fake numbers! Let’s assume they sell at least 200k boxes at a $20 profit margin for each… that’s $4M profit on box sales. Let’s assume they can sustain those 200k subs at $15/month for two years before the number starts to decrease… That’s a net of $36M per year (minus maintenance expenses like staff wages, server costs, etc.). Assuming their budget is $60M for WAR’s total development and a few $M more for advertisement, 200,000 subscriptions is only a moderate success or possibly a break-even for them over two years. Beyond that, it’s probably a nice bit of profit. EA Mythic states that DAOC is still making them money and the subscription numbers have to be pretty small right now (probably around 50K).

…What if none of my guildies from WoW come over to WAR, and I have to find a new guild all over again?

As a “community leader,” (others have said it, not me!), it shouldn’t be too hard for me to find a guild if no-one I know from WoW comes over. Actually, based on my WoW experiences, it wouldn’t matter if none of my guildies came over to WAR because I didn’t really hang out with them back then. According to Keen’s podcasts, he doesn’t plan on having a large group of friends joining him in AoC or WAR, so I’d probably form something up with him! I wrote some of my deeper impressions of guilds in MMORPGs here…

…What if Keen changes his blog banner-o-the-week to Hello Kitty Online? Because, seriously, that would be sweet.

I would hack his blog and paste LOLcat images all over the place. I’m sure Graev would appreciate it!

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